The data experts think this number of points will be enough for League One survival

Doncaster Rovers have four games left to save themselves from the drop.

By Paul Goodwin
Thursday, 14th April 2022, 3:14 pm

Following last weekend’s win over relegated Crewe Alexandra, they are now five points adrift of safety with games against Bolton Wanderers, Shrewsbury Town, Burton Albion and Oxford United left to play.

So how many points do the data experts think would be enough for League One survival?

Number crunchers at FiveThirtyEight use a highly complex ratings system to predict the outcome of matches in 40 leagues across the world.

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Ethan Galbraith in action against Crewe.

They use data such as expected goals (xG) to simulate fixtures and forecast league tables which are updated after every round of games.

Their simulated League One table predicts Rovers to finish second bottom.

According to the data there is now just a 1% chance of Rovers surviving relegation.

Boffins currently think 42 points will be enough to survive the drop – which equates to three wins out of four from Rovers.

However, their forecast is for Doncaster to end the season with 36 points.

Gary McSheffrey’s men currently have 33 points to their name with four games left to play.

AFC Wimbledon, Morecambe and Rovers will be relegated along with Crewe, according to FiveThirtyEight’s projection.

Gillingham are predicted to finish one place above the drop zone, one point clear of danger, while the data suggests that Fleetwood will finish on 44 points.

Wigan Athletic and Rotherham United remain on course for automatic promotion, according to the stats, while MK Dons, Plymouth Argyle, Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland are tipped to finish in the play-off positions.

FiveThirtyEight’s League One predictions can be viewed HERE.