YouGov Prediction: Tories on course to take just eight seats in Yorkshire and Labour set for 45 MPs

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YouGov’s first seat-by-seat MRP analysis of the 2024 general election campaign shows Labour making gains at the expense of the Conservatives across Yorkshire and the Humber.

The detailed projection finds that the Tories would be reduced to eight MPs in the region, with Labour winning in 45 constituencies including Selby, which the party picked up in a byelection last year. The Liberal Democrats are set to win Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Rishi Sunak is on course to be returned to parliament albeit with a significantly reduced majority. The prime minister is set to get well under half the vote in his constituency of Richmond and Northallerton.

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Full data for Yorkshire and the Humber is available here https://yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024

YouGov Prediction: Tories on course to take just eight seats in Yorkshire and Labour set for 45 MPs.YouGov Prediction: Tories on course to take just eight seats in Yorkshire and Labour set for 45 MPs.
YouGov Prediction: Tories on course to take just eight seats in Yorkshire and Labour set for 45 MPs.

The national picture

Across Great Britain, Labour is projected to secure a landslide victory, increasing its number of seats from 202 in 2019 to 422 in 2024. The Conservatives are set to suffer significant defeats, securing just 140 seats across the country. This would be the fewest number of Conservative MPs since 1906.

Most significantly, notable members of the party – including Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg – are projected to lose their seats. The traditional Tory heartlands of Maidenhead (Theresa May’s old seat) and Surrey Heath (Michael Gove’s former constituency) are going to be tightly fought between Conservatives and Lib Dems with their former Tory representatives standing down.

Meanwhile despite securing widespread support, Reform UK is set to take no Westminster seats, although this analysis was undertaken before yesterday’s news from Nigel Farage.

For GB data visit https://yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024

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