New poll suggests Reform UK could win 114 seats at next election, including Doncaster

Nigel Farage’s party would win seats across Britain, decimating Labour’s majority, the sophisticated poll mapping model has revealed.

The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling, weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, and then generates an electoral map of Britain, shows Labour losing 163 seats and with it their majority.

Reform meanwhile would enjoy sweeping gains in the southeast around Kent and Essex, in the midlands around Stoke and the northwest around Sunderland.

The poll also claims the party would take the Doncaster East and Isle of Axholme constituency, held by Labour’s Lee Pitcher who won the newly created seat from former Don Valley Conservative MP Nick Fletcher last July.

A Reform UK spokesman said: “This research tells us what we all know, Reform UK has all the momentum in British politics.

"We are surging in the polls and our membership is growing daily. Thanks to this surge in membership, we have more activists than ever before ready to campaign for the May elections.

"We are reconstituting the centre-right of British politics, the Tory brand is broken, and Reform is now the real opposition."

Another recent poll suggested Reform would win 220 seats if a general election was held today, according to a new projection that shows Nigel Farage’s party leading the pack.

The data, based on a YouGov survey carried out on February 2-3, suggests Reform has surged ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

According to the latest Westminster voting intention figures, Reform sits at 25%, up two points from the previous week.

Labour follows closely with 24%, down three points, while the Conservatives have slipped to 21%, down one point. The Liberal Democrats are holding steady at 14%, with the Greens at 9%.

Reacting to the poll, Farage said on X: "Breaking news. Reform UK are now leading with YouGov for the first time. Britain wants Reform."

The survey of 2,223 British adults also found that Reform is pulling in nearly one in four voters who backed the Conservatives at the last election.

Meanwhile, Labour is struggling to hold onto its support, with only 60% of its 2019 voters saying they would vote for the party again.