New poll predicts Doncaster Cabinet ministers to lose seats to Reform UK

The More in Common survey found 16 out of the 22 Labour MPs who form the Prime Minister's top team would be kicked out of the House of Commons.

Twelve of them would lose their seats to Reform UK, three would lose their seats to the Green Party, and one would lose to an independent, the research suggested.

Both Doncaster North MP Ed Miliband and Rawmarsh and Conisbrough MP John Healey, who both have jobs at the PM’s top table, would be among those taken out by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

The MRP (Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification) poll was based on voting intention data from more than 15,000 Britons.

It projected that, overall, Reform would win 324 seats at a general election - putting Mr Farage's party far ahead of Labour (101 seats), the Tories (81), Liberal Democrats (62), SNP (26) and Greens (22).

However, Reform's projected tally of seats is one short of a majority in the Commons and 57 seats fewer than in More in Common's previous model in January.

Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, warned there 'doesn't appear to be anything such as a safe seat' for Labour.

He said: 'Labour may breathe a sigh of relief they are back above 100 seats in this latest projection, while Reform have slipped back and would now just sit on the cusp of a majority.

'But if anything what this latest model shows is that Labour, in a mirror of what faced the Tories in 2024, now faces a very real war on two fronts.

'Losing 100s of seats to Reform, while at the same time being threatened by Polanski's Greens in their former urban strongholds.'

Mr Tryl added: 'For the Tories this is the second of our MRPs in a row where their seat total has climbed back, though they would still be heading for well under 100 seats.

'Meanwhile Reform remain well over 200 seats clear of their closest challenger and the only party that could viably form a Government.’