Cheltenham Festival: Day Three tips and analysis by Racing Post experts

Crowd favourites Faugheen, Frodon and Paisley Park all feature at Cheltenham today.
Bryony Frost celebrates after riding Frodon to win The Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last year. Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty ImagesBryony Frost celebrates after riding Frodon to win The Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last year. Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images
Bryony Frost celebrates after riding Frodon to win The Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last year. Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images

But will they be parading in the winners’ enclosure? Racing Post experts have dissected a quality card...

3.30 Stayers’ Hurdle

Paisley Park (8/13) will retain the Stayers’ Hurdle and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t. It’s as simple as that. He’s been unbeaten since his win here last year and has shown no sign of regression in his two runs since.

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This means it’s time to turn to attention to each-way value elsewhere. Tobefair (66/1) is going off at a huge price, and while he is certainly out of his depth on paper, there are some signs of progression and he enjoys the trip at Cheltenham.

2.50 Ryanair Chase

This is a fairly difficult race to call, not because choosing the winner is tricky business, but backing against Frodon (5/1) feels so hard.

His win in this race last year that brought the house down was spectacular and the highlight of the Festival. The popular horse is a regular feature in the Winners’ enclosure at Cheltenham having won five times in 13 appearances in the Cotsworlds, and there will not be many more popular winners if he retains his crown.

A Plus Tard (7/4) presents the biggest challenge. His speed is a serious threat to Frodon, who can’t match his pace if their staying power is even.

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Both are likely to outstay Min (12/5), and A Plus Tard could have the slight edge over Paul Nicholls’ stable-star, but should you really be betting against Frodon at Cheltenham?

1.30 Marsh Novices’ Chase

Samcro (7/2) and the legendary Faugheen (4/1) will be very popular winners, with the latter bringing the house down he wins, but the winner is likely to come from one of the British contingent, headed by Itchy Feet (4/1) and Mister Fisher (9/2).

Itchy Feet is a slightly shorter price and is Olly Murphy’s best hope of clinching a Festival winner, but Nicky Henderson’s Mister Fisher looks the best bet in the first. They’ve had a similar campaign this season, but Itchy Feet and doesn’t have a Grade One under his belt like his rival, but he could may the edge here. In a well-run race, Mister Fisher will have a slight advantage given he’s showing marginally better progression, his course and distance experience should also count in this.

Melon (11/1) is worth a shout. Twice runner up in the Champion Hurdle, but is less promising this season.

2.10 Pertempts Handicap Hurdle

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There’s plenty to choose from in what could be a profitable race for whoever correctly backs a winner. The Storyteller is well-fancied, but again the feeling is that the value is elsewhere. A Great View (14/1) is a great option having been campaigned for this race for a fair while.

Further down the field is Jatiluwih (20/1), who offers great each-way value. He won well at Cheltenham in December over two miles five furlongs, the distance he tends to enjoy the most, but everything about him suggests the step-up in trip will help him out. David Maxwell being booked to ride is a slight concern, although he’s generally not been awkward hurdling.

4.10 Brown Advisory

Simply the Betts (10/3) is the clear market leader after he blew away a good field at Cheltenham in January, but there is value to be had further down the list. La Bague Au Roi (12/1) won a Grade One last season and ran well in the Irish Gold Cup in February. She’s not had the best season in terms of finishing positions, but connections are positive about the progress she’s been making and will be a good price on the day.

4.50 Mares’ Novices Hurdle

Willie Mullins has won all our renewals of this race and has Concertista (4/1), Colreevy (13/2) and Dolcita (7/1) all in the top four of the betting, Henry De Bromhead’s Minella Melody (11/4) heads the betting.

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However, Mount Ida (22/1) could spring a surprise after only being beaten by under a length by Minella Melody in early December off level weights, she has five pounds in her favour for the Cheltenham rematch. Filly Midnight’s Gift (28/1), a vibrant four-year-old, could also deliver off a short price.

5.30 Kim Muir

Grand National hopeful Le Breuil (11/2) is close to being favourite and could go here after winning last year’s National Hunt Chase. He’s well-handicapped and has the advantage of being ridden by Jamie Codd, master of Amateur Riders’ races.

Thursday selectins via Racing Post

1.30 Mister Fischer (9/2)

2.10 A Great View 14/1 Jatiluwih (20/1) ew

2.50 Frodon (5/1)

3.30 Paisley Park (8/13) Tobefair (66/1) ew

4.10 La Bague Au Roi (12/1)

4.50 Mount Ida (22/1)

5.30 Le Breuil (11/2)

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