This is how many points Doncaster Rovers could need to clinch play-off spot

Doncaster Rovers are now looking over their shoulders in the race for the play-offs – so how many points will they need to guarantee a top six finish?

Friday, 26th March 2021, 4:01 pm
Updated Friday, 26th March 2021, 7:22 pm
A general view of play during the match between Doncaster Rovers and Plymouth Argyle. Photo: George Wood/Getty Images

Fifth-placed Rovers currently have 57 points from 34 games and a better PPG (1.68) than every side beneath them in the League One table.

But a disappointing run of form - just two wins from 11 and nine points taken from the last 33 available - means several sides are now breathing down their necks.

To emphasise that point, 13th-placed MK Dons could move to within three points of Rovers by beating Andy Butler’s side tomorrow.

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So what does the data tell us about how many points will be required to reach the play-offs?

The average points tally for the side finishing sixth in League One over the last ten years is 73.

Meanwhile, experts at FiveThirtyEight, who use sophisticated data modelling to simulate the season, predict that Rovers will finish sixth in League One with 75 points, two points clear of Portsmouth in seventh and a further two clear of Ipswich Town in eighth.

Both of those figures would suggest that six more wins from the final 12 games would be enough to qualify for the play-offs.

Rovers have five games remaining at home and seven away.

Remaining fixtures: MK Dons (a), Charlton (h), Bristol Rovers (a), Wigan (h), Burton (h), Shrewsbury (a), Accrington (a), Fleetwood (h), Peterborough (a), Rochdale (a), Blackpool (a), Peterborough (h).