A new proposal of how to decide the season would hand Doncaster Rovers a play-off place - but how would it work?

Tranmere Rovers chairman - and former FA chief executive - Mark Palios will on Tuesday put forward an adapted suggestion of how to decide who finishes where in each of the EFL’s three divisions should the season be curtailed.

And he believes he has delivered a much ‘fairer solution’ than the straight points per game method that has been proposed by the EFL board, along with promotion, relegation and play-off campaigns taking place in each of the three divisions.

Palios is suggesting that a margin for error calculation is added to PPG, to give a more accurate reflection of what clubs could possibly achieve over the final matches of the season.

The 71 clubs across the three EFL divisions have until 2pm on Tuesday to offer any alternative proposals, which may be discussed and potentially voted on at a meeting of all clubs on June 8.

Only after it is decided which method will be used to determine final placings in the event no further matches take place will clubs then vote on a division-by-division basis on whether to curtail the season.

League One clubs have been in conflict on whether to play on or not, with vocal opponents such as Palios arguing they will be hard done by under the EFL’s own PPG proposal.

Tranmere would be relegated to League Two under that method. They currently sit three points from safety but have a game in hand and won their last three matches prior to the shutdown of the game due to the Covid-19 crisis.

Palios hopes to gain support for his proposal which, unsurprisingly, would see Tranmere escape relegation.

He said: "We're trying to effect a compromise as close to the EFL's position but iterate our original proposal to reflect the wishes of the majority of clubs and achieve a fairer solution that football people will recognise as such."

Here, we take a deeper look at what Palios’ proposal would involve.

WHAT IS THE METHODOLOGY BEHIND PALIOS’ PROPOSAL?

Palios and his team carried out a statistical analysis of points per game over the previous three years, uncovering a margin for error based on the actual outcomes of a season.

The analysis involved measuring the difference between the predicted final points total of each club calculated with nine matches remaining and the actual final points total after all games were played.

The published results showed an average margin for error of between -5.45 per cent to +6.3 per cent.

So, on average, clubs achieve between 5.45 per cent less and 6.3 per cent more points than PPG predicts.

There were also cases of clubs outperforming their PPG prediction by more than 20 per cent.

Palios believes such results show PPG to be an unreliable and inaccurate method by which to predict the final outcome of a division - particularly where relegation is concerned.

HOW WOULD MARGIN FOR ERROR WORK?

The starting point sees a points per game calculation applied for each team to predict a final points total and therefore, placing in the division.

Then, the high and low margin for error average would be applied to the predicted total, giving a points range for each team.

For example, points per game would give Doncaster Rovers a total of 68.88.

With the high-low margins for error applied, Rovers would be given a points range between 66.11 and 74.27.

A TWO PRONGED SUGGESTION?

Palios has proposed two possibilities for the margin for error method - the ‘inflation option and the ‘limited inflation proposal.’

He favours the ‘inflation option’ as the most fair.

This involves no relegation at all, suggesting that PPG is at its most inaccurate when applied to teams at the bottom end of the table as it does not take account of potentially positive runs of form that differ from the consistency of results they have produced throughout the season.

The ‘limited inflation proposal’ would see relegation implemented, but not necessarily all the usual relegation places being filled.

WHAT ARE THE OUTCOMES PALIOS IS PROPOSING?

PROMOTION

Only clubs who remain in automatic promotion places after margin for error is applied would be promoted.

The automatic promotion mark would be set at greater than the upper points limit of the team finishing in the first non-automatic promotion place (eg. third in League One).

In the case of League One, that would be greater than 81.15 points, which is the top end of Wycombe’s points range.

The proposal for League Two sees the mark set at the lowest end of the points range of the team in the final automatic promotion place. Any team whose low points range takes them under this amount, would not be promoted automatically.

RELEGATION

Under the ‘limited inflation proposal’ which includes relegation, only clubs who remain in relegation places after margin for error is applied would be relegated.

Clubs would only be relegated if their upper points limit would not surpass the lower points limit of teams outside the relegation zone.

For example, Tranmere would be placed in 21st under PPG, with an upper points limit of 44.01. As AFC Wimbledon’s lower points limit would be 41.62, Tranmere would not be relegated.

PLAY-OFFS

Any club that would not finish in automatic promotion places but would have the possibility of finishing in the play-off places under margin for error would be invited to compete in a play-off campaign. Clubs would not be forced to compete and could opt out.

The cut off point would be set at the lower points limit of the team finishing in sixth place. Any team whose upper points limit took them beyond that mark would be eligible.

For example, in League One, the lowest total for a team in those positions when a negative margin for error is applied would be 71.36. As Rovers’ positive margin for error total is 74.27, it would make them eligible for the play-offs.

HOW WOULD PALIOS’ SUGGESTION SHAPE LEAGUE ONE?

Under either of the two proposals, the current top two would remain as it is once margin for error is applied, meaning Coventry City and Rotherham United would both be promoted to the Championship.

Under the ‘inflation model’, no clubs would be relegated from the division. The 2020/21 season would take place with three extra teams in League One. Palios suggests fixture congestion could be eased by cancelling a minor cup competition for the season and believes increased revenue from extra matchdays would offset the reduction in solidarity payments.

Under the ‘limited inflation model’, only Bolton Wanderers and Southend United would be relegated. The 2021/21 season would take place with one extra team in League One.

Under either of the two proposals, teams from third to ninth would be eligible to compete in the play-offs if they wished. These teams are Oxford United, Portsmouth, Fleetwood Town, Peterborough United, Sunderland, Wycombe Wanderers and Doncaster Rovers.

WHAT CHALLENGES ARE FACING PALIOS’ PROPOSAL?

It should be noted that Palios is not presenting the proposal as the finished article but wants clubs to debate, fine tune and agree to the final calculations that would be used.

The main issue for Palios is that his proposal is designed to address the issues in League One specifically, rather than all three EFL divisions.

It would be difficult for him to get all the clubs in his own division on board, with many happy to go with the EFL’s favoured proposal as it ultimately makes little difference to their own fortunes.

But he must also convince plenty of clubs within League Two and the Championship if this proposal is going to be voted through.

League Two clubs have already signalled their intent to curtail the season while Championship sides are preparing to return to action on June 20.

He will no doubt have approached those clubs who would be directly affected by it, such as clubs at the bottom end of the Championship who would be saved. The ‘limited inflation model’ drawn up would see only Barnsley and Luton Town relegated to League One.

The model would also see teams from third to 13th in the Championship invited into the play-offs.

Building a large wave of support will be vital for Palios to simply have the proposal put on the table at the meeting of the 71 clubs on June 8.

The EFL board are understood to be reluctant to implement any proposal they deem as being ‘too complicated’ as they are keen to be able to explain the format to the public as simply as possible.

They have also expressed their determination to not expand play-off campaigns beyond the usual four team format.

ANALYSIS

It certainly cannot be argued that this proposal is more fair than the straight PPG model, and takes into much greater consideration what teams may have achieved.

It is also entirely designed to placate those clubs in League One who are the most vocal opponents to the straight PPG model, such as Palios himself - which could be taken two ways.

There are also questions as to why the margin for error calculations have only been done based on the previous three years. Why not more to give a greater representation of what the margin for error actually is.

Palios may answer that last point by suggesting that this is only initial working, and that it is open for further examination.

But it is strange that he has generated such a detailed proposal based on a short range of data.

The play-off proposal would put clubs under pressure they might reasonably want to avoid. Some clubs may feel the cost of returning to action for a short campaign may not be worth the gamble for the chase of promotion. But admitting that in public would put them in a difficult position with some supporters who could accuse them of lacking ambition.

It is difficult to see this proposal garnering enough support to be voted into being, simply because not enough clubs are directly affected by it.

However, its existence reflects the complex nature of the process the EFL is currently attempting to manage as they attempt to help reach some consensus among clubs in order to finally determine what will happen this season.

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